Israeli Strikes Threaten Syria–Lebanon Trade

As Syria’s trade crashed during the conflict, its relative dependency on Lebanon as a partner increased. Where only 3% of Syria’s exports went to Lebanon in 2010, the share has risen to 16% as of 2023. For imports, the share rose less prominently, from 1.3% to 2.7%. In reality, both shares are likely to be much higher due to excessive smuggling.

Legal land trade is limited to the crossings of Masnaa, Arida, and Dabbousieh, while maritime and air shipping play a less significant role. The Masnaa crossing is the most crucial, handling 58% of Syria–Lebanon trade in 2023, mainly due to its location on the shortest route between Beirut and Damascus. Re-export and transit trade, which occur via Masnaa, Rafic Hariri Airport, and the ports of Beirut and Tripoli, remain limited, amounting to only $15 million US in 2023.

On 4 October 2024, Israel attacked the Lebanese side of Masnaa Crossing, creating a four-meter-wide crater that cut the road off. Another attack was reported on 22 October, highlighting an Israeli desire to prevent operations from resuming. Masnaa is not the only crossing currently out of operation. Matraba Crossing and Joussieh have also been attacked; both are non-commercial crossings.

Due to Masnaa’s pivotal role, the Israeli attack has significantly disrupted Syria-Lebanon trade, reportedly driving up land commercial shipping costs by 40%. Longer alternative routes have led to higher transportation expenses, increased bribes at Syrian military checkpoints, and fuel shortages for trucks. 

The impact on prices in the Syrian market remains uncertain and difficult to disentangle from other factors—such as the influx of people into Syria—with sources reporting highly variable price increases. While one source reported increases of 15–30%, another source reported increases as high as 35%. The Public Consumer Protection Association in Syria has confirmed a 15% price increase on imported and locally produced goods that rely on raw materials from Lebanon.

While the figures are only indicative, a surge in prices is well-documented. Fuel prices have been particularly impacted, with gasoline prices in the Syrian black market reaching as high as 30,000 SYP per liter (about $2 US or $8 per gallon), compared to $0.85 per liter (about $3.40 per gallon) in Lebanon. The price of petroleum products affects the cost of nearly all goods and services. Other products experiencing price increases or shortages include cigarettes, charcoal, hookah tobacco, and alcoholic beverages, all of which are sourced from the Lebanese market.

The impact on Lebanon is likely to be worse. The disruption also affects Lebanon’s exports to other Arab countries, which transit through Syria. Although alternative crossings are available, they are less efficient and will likely increase shipping costs by 10%. The Lebanese Customs data in 2023 shows that 96% of its land imports and 87% of land exports passed through the Masnaa crossing, highlighting its importance for regional trade

Although Lebanese authorities have monitored the damage, they have not initiated repairs, likely anticipating that any restoration would only invite further strikes by Israel, making reconstruction efforts futile amid the ongoing political tensions.