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April 28, 2020

Is Regime-Held Syria on the Brink of a Famine?

Wheat bread is Syria’s main staple. In early June 2020, SDF authorities banned the sale of wheat harvested in their areas to the regime.


It seems this ban has been eased, with 0.2 million tonnes already sold in Qamishli and al-Hasakeh.


I estimate that regime-held areas need 1.4 million tonnes per annum—1.02 have already been supplied or contracted for the year to mid-2021.


A famine? Unlikely.


Bread shortages? Perhaps.


A month ago (see post), I estimated that regime-held areas need 1.4 million tonnes of wheat per year.


Today, the Seed Bank said it has purchased 100% of its needs for next year's harvest, enough to produce 1.4 million tonnes—not a bad estimate :)


A famine is rather unlikely!

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